Anyone who has ever listened to me for very long knows that I am not a big fan of many forms of government, as I feel as Churchill did that "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." Recognizing this fact, I favor the expansion of democratic values and institutions throughout the world as the best alternative to having no government (see JS I am not an anarchist). I do not, however, believe that simply having elections is the hallmark democracy. Having elections in many places is actually dangerous (see Paul Collier's work for an explanation). As I have followed Myanmar for years in the study of ethnic conflict and the general mix of Southeast Asian international relations, I have watched with interest the lead up to and events of this week in Myanmar. Hey, they went and did it finally, they had elections. Now the tough part, will elections in Myanmar improve the quality of the practice and institutions of democracy in Myanmar. For my two cents, to quote a Saturday morning favorite, "not so fast my friends".
First, I see nothing in any of the electoral behavior or in even the rhetoric of either the existing government/military power brokers to indicate that the military will relax its grip on the country. While the military has given its blessing to the elections, it did so after creating its own political party stocked with retired senior officers and after rewriting the constitution of Myanmar to give the military party 25% of the seats (guaranteed) and giving the power to assume state powers if the military determines a state of emergency exists. Also, the constitution was rewritten to specifically bar some opposition party members--read Aung San Suu Kyi--from holding the office of president (in her case the law states that no family member of a presidential candidate can hold foreign citizenship, which her sons do hold).
Second, I am not certain that Aung San Suu Kyi is really interested in democracy. Ok, right now I hear the gnashing of teeth and the gasping of many people. But, Aung San Suu Kyi may not view democracy as such an open ideology and set of institutions as those of us in settled democracy view democracy. For instance, Aung San Suu Kyi said last week that it does not matter if she can be president, she will be the real power above the president. As read in Robin McDowell's article in the AP wire line on Nov. 5th, "I'll be above the president...I'll run the government". This statement does not make me feel most comfortable with the future of democracy in Myanmar.
Finally, I see nothing in the behavior of the majority Buddhist National League for Democracy party led by Aung San Suu Kyi recognizing the rights of ethnic minority populations in Myanmar. Given the number of problems involving ethnic minorities highlighted in the past year's news from Myanmar, I would expect democratic proponents to be more favorably disposed toward respecting the will of the majority while recognizing the rights of the minority. And I just do not see this right now in Myanmar.
Maybe I am too pessimistic. Maybe not.
First, I see nothing in any of the electoral behavior or in even the rhetoric of either the existing government/military power brokers to indicate that the military will relax its grip on the country. While the military has given its blessing to the elections, it did so after creating its own political party stocked with retired senior officers and after rewriting the constitution of Myanmar to give the military party 25% of the seats (guaranteed) and giving the power to assume state powers if the military determines a state of emergency exists. Also, the constitution was rewritten to specifically bar some opposition party members--read Aung San Suu Kyi--from holding the office of president (in her case the law states that no family member of a presidential candidate can hold foreign citizenship, which her sons do hold).
Second, I am not certain that Aung San Suu Kyi is really interested in democracy. Ok, right now I hear the gnashing of teeth and the gasping of many people. But, Aung San Suu Kyi may not view democracy as such an open ideology and set of institutions as those of us in settled democracy view democracy. For instance, Aung San Suu Kyi said last week that it does not matter if she can be president, she will be the real power above the president. As read in Robin McDowell's article in the AP wire line on Nov. 5th, "I'll be above the president...I'll run the government". This statement does not make me feel most comfortable with the future of democracy in Myanmar.
Finally, I see nothing in the behavior of the majority Buddhist National League for Democracy party led by Aung San Suu Kyi recognizing the rights of ethnic minority populations in Myanmar. Given the number of problems involving ethnic minorities highlighted in the past year's news from Myanmar, I would expect democratic proponents to be more favorably disposed toward respecting the will of the majority while recognizing the rights of the minority. And I just do not see this right now in Myanmar.
Maybe I am too pessimistic. Maybe not.
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