Monday, February 27, 2012

What is the End Game with Iran?

So, in talking policy and international affairs with my students I always ask about the "end game".  What is the end game in situation X?  In other words what is the ending scenario that is desired and that the government is working to achieve?  Within the end game we also need to know why a particular desire has been chosen by the government--does it represent the population's collective desire or the desire of a part of the population, and is it important for the end game to represent the desire of a majority of the population or just a part of the population (this becomes real and really tricky in a pluralistic society). 

Last night I was reading James Traub's blog, "What Would John Adams Do About Iran?" and he states that if Obama continues a policy of engagement with Iran that "Iran, at a minimum, must be reassured that it can retain its nuclear program."  So, I wonder is an Iran with a nuclear program the end game that is desirable to the U.S.?  And what is the desired end game from the Iranian perspective, is it really just to have a nuclear program? 

In comparing Adams and Obama I think Traub overlooks end game.  Adams' end game was the survival of the United States (which was still not universally accepted as the expected outcome of the grand experiment).  Adams could chart the course he chose--diplomacy and a floating wooden fence (Adams helped created the U.S. Navy) specifically because the end game was not defeating France, not over-coming the XYZ Affair, but the very survival of the United States.

Is anyone sure that all Iran wants is to have a nuclear program?  What type of nuclear program?  Does it have to be a nuclear program that is capable of producing weapons grade material?  Is the desire a program for energy and science?  Is it desirable to the U.S. for Iran to be capable of producing weapons grade material--it seems this is obviously not the case with the current administration.  But, is it even desirable for Iran to have a nuclear program at all?  Some signs point to yes, others to no when we consider statements and behaviors of past and current U.S. administrations.  Does allowing Iran to have a nuclear program create international stability issues in the Southwest Asian region?  Is this a desirable end game?  So, I guess for my own two cents, I want to know what the end game is for U.S. policy toward Iran.
 

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