Monday, March 17, 2014

Crimean Irredentism Referendum Postmortem

So, folks what do you get when you cross a Russian strong man, with a near abroad population living in territory containing a relative warm water port facility and chance to thumb his nose at the western world?  Ding! Ding! Ding!  you guessed it, you get a Crimean referendum on secession and annexation by Russia (by the way, secession for the purpose of being annexed by a nearby country is irredentism by another name).

Now, I am not trying to say anything negative about the "referendum" held yesterday in Crimea.  But, I do have a few questions that someone might try to answer for me.  One, has anyone else ever heard of a referendum in modern or contemporary times (that allows us to go way back to the mid 1700s and up to the present day) being held less than 10 days after the call for the referendum?  Honestly, I am ignorant here of any similar call for referendum and actual holding of the referendum on such short notice.  Two, is a referendum really a referendum when armed forces of the country to which they voters are being asked about being annexed by (and yes, the troops without name tapes and country identification in Crimea are from Russia, so do not try to deny this fact) are already occupying the territory?  Three, in specific to the Crimea, how did they get 97% support for secession and annexation and over 90% turnout when last week reports stated that nearly 30% of Crimea's population were not going to participate and the Russian population is actually only about 65-70% (I have read four different numbers during the last two weeks)?  Ok, move along folks, nothing to see here, just another referendum.

The next question is what will the U.S., Europe, and any other country that cares actually do in response to the referendum and potential annexation of Crimea by Russia?  Apparently, not much--sanctioning 11 people (according to what I have read today)--seems to be Obama's answer.  European governments seem to be thinking the same.  Of course, we could just go back to Cold War rhetoric.  For my two cents one more time, this fight is not worth great cost for U.S. interests.  So, sanction away and do not expect any real results.

On the trying to find something funny front regarding Crimea, hats off to JD who forwarded this cartoon to me last week.

 

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