Monday, April 16, 2012

Sorry to Be Proven Correct--at this time

BEIRUT (AP) — An advance team of U.N. observers was negotiating the ground rules with Syrian authorities Monday for monitoring the country's 5-day-old cease-fire, which appeared to be rapidly unraveling as regime forces pounded the opposition stronghold of Homs with artillery shells and mortars, activists said.
Even though the overall level of violence across Syria has dropped significantly since the truce took effect, government attacks over the weekend raised new doubts about President Bashar Assad's commitment to special envoy Kofi Annan's plan to end 13 months of violence and launch talks on the country's political future.


What does President Assad have to lose?  Will any country in the world invade if he defies the cease-fire?  If any country intervenes what will the end result be--Assad still in power, damage repaired with foreign funds?  Assad out of power (living in exile on millions of US dollars), damage repaired by foreign funds, uncertain government future?  If no country intervenes what will the end result be--Assad still in control, population broken, damage repaired by foreign funds?  Assad removed (possibly killed), damage repaired by foreign funds, uncertain government future?   Given four real possibilities, what do you think Assad will choose to do in the coming days, weeks, months?

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