Philippines President Duterte announced yesterday that the joint military exercises with the U.S. would be the last such exercises between the two countries. Duterte has said that the alliance between the two countries dating to the 1951 defense treaty will be maintained. Duterte said these things while visiting Vietnam. Duterte is also on record stating a desire for better trade relations with China and has said much less than his predecessors about the Chinese behavior in the South China Sea, despite a Hague Tribunal decision that favors the Philippines position over the Chinese in the South China Sea. Duterte has scrapped plans for joint patrols in the South China Sea with the U.S. that were brokered earlier this year by his predecessor. Duterte has publicly used foul language in speaking of the President of the U.S. Duterte is also on record discussing options to purchase military equipment from Russia and China. Is the U.S. losing an ally?
For my two cents the answer is well maybe. I say maybe because while the Philippine president has great authority in such matters, Philippine presidents since Marcos can only serve one six year term. Duterte can pull the Philippines away from the U.S. for a time, but only for the time he is in office. Whether we lose the Philippines as a strategic partner in the region will be decided by how we react to Duterte's leadership.
Two factors pop into my mind regarding this issue. One, the Philippines is in Southeast Asia and must deal with China. In the realm of balance of power who holds the power that must be balanced in Asia? The fact that Duterte is in Vietnam this week shows a growth in regional balance of power behavior. Two, in the realm of security-seeking behavior, is a closer relationship with stronger military ties to the U.S. in the interest of the Philippines? Has the U.S. shown such a relationship to be in the security interest of China.
The Philippines cannot maintain the status quo with China on their own. I see it as unlikely that a strong alliance will emerge on security issues and economic issues related to the South China Sea. ASEAN will not create a balance against China because of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos who have tight relations with China. The Philippines will find that an alliance with Vietnam will only go so far in producing security and will not produce an alliance which will balance against aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea. While stronger economic and security ties with China are in the Philippine realm of interest, I do not believe these ties will be found satisfactory to the Philippines.
For my two cents the answer is well maybe. I say maybe because while the Philippine president has great authority in such matters, Philippine presidents since Marcos can only serve one six year term. Duterte can pull the Philippines away from the U.S. for a time, but only for the time he is in office. Whether we lose the Philippines as a strategic partner in the region will be decided by how we react to Duterte's leadership.
Two factors pop into my mind regarding this issue. One, the Philippines is in Southeast Asia and must deal with China. In the realm of balance of power who holds the power that must be balanced in Asia? The fact that Duterte is in Vietnam this week shows a growth in regional balance of power behavior. Two, in the realm of security-seeking behavior, is a closer relationship with stronger military ties to the U.S. in the interest of the Philippines? Has the U.S. shown such a relationship to be in the security interest of China.
The Philippines cannot maintain the status quo with China on their own. I see it as unlikely that a strong alliance will emerge on security issues and economic issues related to the South China Sea. ASEAN will not create a balance against China because of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos who have tight relations with China. The Philippines will find that an alliance with Vietnam will only go so far in producing security and will not produce an alliance which will balance against aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea. While stronger economic and security ties with China are in the Philippine realm of interest, I do not believe these ties will be found satisfactory to the Philippines.
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