Monday, April 7, 2014

Connections; China and Crimea?

During the build up to Russia's annexation of Crimea, I pondered the question of what U.S. actions and responses to Russian aggression might signal to China in relation to the South China Sea disputes and disputes with Japan over islands in the East China Sea.  I wondered to myself and in musings with students whether a weak U.S. response, or any U.S. response would send a signal to China that aggressive action on their part would be met with a weak U.S. response as well.  Later in Toronto speaking with my mentor, Steve Saideman, I brought up the same question.  Steve told me he did not believe the same type of significance could be applied to the situation in the South China Sea.  Well, apparently Chuck Hagel (U.S. Sec. of Defense) thinks there is direct connection between the two items (read here).

In unusually forceful remarks about China, Hagel drew a direct line between Russia's takeover of Ukraine's Crimea region and the ongoing territorial disputes between China, Japan and others over remote islands in the East China Sea.
"I think we're seeing some clear evidence of a lack of respect and intimidation and coercion in Europe today with what the Russians have done with Ukraine," Hagel told reporters after a meeting with Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera. "We must be very careful and we must be very clear, all nations of the world, that in the 21st century this will not stand, you cannot go around the world and redefine boundaries and violate territorial integrity and sovereignty of nations by force, coercion and intimidation whether it's in small islands in the Pacific or large nations in Europe."

Well, what do you know, even a blind squirrel can find an acorn.  For my two cents, I do not believe that China is exhibiting nearly the same level of aggressive leveraging of position as Russia.  I do not believe that China will issue a statement of annexation--partially because China already believes that they own the islets, rocks, shoals, in question.  By the way, Hagel also designated China as a great power.

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