Russia vs. Ukraine in Sea of Azov

Russian forces engaged with and captured Ukrainian patrol vessels in the Black Sea as they approached the Strait of Kerch.  As you can see below, in an agreement between Russia and Ukraine dating to 2003, the Strait of Kerch and Sea of Azov are jointly navigable waterways.  The fourth statement clearly intimates that military vessels of both Russia and Ukraine have right of navigation of the strait and the sea. 

Agreement between the Russian Federation and the Ukraine on cooperation in the use of the sea of Azov and the strait of Kerch  Dec 24, 2003

The Parties, proceeding from the necessity of conservation of the Azov-Kerch defined area of water as integral economic and natural complex, to be used in the interests of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine, have agreed as follows: 1) The sea of Azov and the strait of Kerch are historically internal waters of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine. 2) The sea of Azov must be delimited by the state border in accordance with the Agreement signed by the Parties. 3) Dispute settlement regarding the issues pertaining to the defined area of water of Kerch must be regulated by agreement between the Parties. 4) Mercantile vessels and other state non-commercial vessels flying the flags of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine have free navigation in the sea of Azov and the strait of Kerch. 5) Russian-Ukrainian cooperation in the spheres of navigation, fisheries, protection of marine environment, ecological safety and life-saving in the sea of Azov and the strait of Kerch must be implemented on the basis of existing international agreements and by conclusion, in respective cases, of the new ones.

This morning I read here that Putin claims the attack was staged by Ukraine.  I also read the following statement here.  Note that this statement is dated April 2018.  

6 April 2018, 20:29 Russia is planning to carry out a violent provocation, namely a collision with Ukrainian border guards, to strengthen its military presence in the Sea of Azov under the pretext of protecting the lives of its citizens, a source in the military has told LB.ua.

"We have learnt that the FSB [Federal Security Service] is planning a provocation: using certain weather conditions (fog) to artificially cause an incident involving chase, ramming and death of people as a result of actions by our border guards. During the final stage, it is planned to provoke a collision between a Russian boat with a Ukrainian patrol boat with the use of weapons," the source said.

For my two cents, Putin’s statement does not carry logical validity.  While the content of the April report might give some cover to claims that Ukraine staged the event, do you really expect anyone to believe that Ukraine would intentionally lose military vessels and crew members to Russia?  Video footage does not indicate threatening posture on the part of the Ukrainian vessels toward the Russian vessels involved in the incident.  We have not seen the full footage of the incident and are unlikely to see the full footage of the incident.  Arguing that the President of Ukraine is orchestrating this incident to create support for re-election means we have to believe that he was willing to sacrifice expensive hardware and valuable lives to hold a political office—oh wait, historically we have seen this happen.  What then makes Putin’s statement illogical?

Putin’s statement that Ukraine orchestrated the event would mean that Ukrainian vessels left Russian vessels with no option but to attack.  What limited footage we have seen shows no agression on the part of the Ukrainian vessels and definite aggression on the part of Russian vessels.  How did Ukraine know how Russian vessels would respond?  The April statement indicated an expectation of a Russian plot in May of 2018 not in November 2018.  In totality of Russian behaviors of the last few years, Putin’s statement just does not hold up to scrutiny.