Thursday, November 10, 2016

What We Learn from Duterte

In late September I wrote about the potential loss of the Philippines as a staunch ally in SE Asia.  Yesterday, President Duterte congratulated Donald Trump on his election victory.  Duterte stated the following as reported by Reuters:

"We are both [Duterte and Trum] making curses.  Even with trivial matters we curse.  I was supposed to stop because Trump is there.  I don't want to quarrel anymore, because Trump has won."

Duterte's rants aimed at the Obama administration have shown his frustration with U.S. tying aid packages to what Duterte considered internal affairs of the Philippines.  "You do not give us the aid, s***, to hell with you," was one recent statement made by Duterte in reference to the U.S. State Department determining to delay and study sales of rifles to the Philippine national police.  This frustration is found in many parts of the world.  Sorry to say, the promise of the Obama administration bringing change to U.S. foreign policy behavior was lost within the first months of his administration.

For my two cents, most of the world would like us to get out of their domestic arena.  Yes, they want our aid, yes they want our technological expertise.  Yes, they do want our security blanket.  But what many states want is for us to stay out of their domestic arena.  A thought has occurred to me that with Trump we may get that behavior--the U.S. may stay out of the domestic issues of many states, Trump and his advisors may--MAY--just not be liberal internationalists who believe that U.S. involvement is required to solve every problem in the world and the U.S. ideals about best forms of government and best actions of government are best for every population in the world.  But, we shall see, much will be known in the next 72 days as Trump puts together the group who will advise him on foreign policy and be chosen to run the diplomatic, intelligence, and security organizations of the U.S.

Do not live in fear of what will be coming.  The unknown is simply the unknown.  The unknown unknowns are what we should fear.  U.S. citizens are faced with unknowns rights now in regards to who Trump will surround himself with and what course of action Trump will champion.  We are not looking at unknown unknowns, just at not knowing things that will become clearer to us in the next 72 days.

Remember that election rhetoric is election rhetoric.  A lot of it is fake, like professional wrestling on television.  Yes athleticism is required and the people involved are really athletic.  But no, the story lines are not real--they are entertainment--and if anyone really got beat up as badly as it appears on the wrestling shows, they would not be doing anything physical for a few days to a few weeks at the least (Thanks J.O. for reminding me of Atwater's description of elections yesterday).  Politicians running for office say stupid things, say smart things, say a whole lot of things, but in the end...they have to work within the constraints of the U.S. Constitution--THANK YOU FOUNDING FATHERS--even where we may argue that the Constitution has been improperly interpreted by courts or applied by legal statute.

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