Thank you Russia for occupying Crimea and trying to steer irredentist fervor of Russians living in a part of the Ukraine. Thank you President Obama for showing the world that you are full of bluster, strutting to and fro and signifying nothing. Ok, so I know that I dismissed blogging about Ukraine last week--it was Spring Break, I was grading papers and exams. But, being dismissive last week does not mean that I do not have two cents to say about the subject matter.
One of the push backs against structural theories and realist theories of international relations is that these theories only explain one outcome--war. Another push back is that these theories are outdated as proven by their failure to explain the end of the Cold War happening without a very "hot" war. Speaking in generalizations, we have seen the growth of theoretic frameworks championing cooperative understandings of norms and procedures. We have seen the growth of popularity of democratic engagement/enlargement. We have seen an increase in arguments eschewing the understanding of balance of power in favor of understanding interdependence.
Now, I am no fan of the abuse of power or aggressive unilateral foreign policy that serves no particular interests. So, to be frank, I do not believe the U.S. has any great interest in Ukraine and if the Russians want Crimea I see no reason for the U.S. to openly aggravate the situation by failing to distinguish between power and interest. Yes, we have the power to engage any government anywhere over any issue. But we do not have any interest in Ukraine beyond our interest in acting against Putin and Russia. Russia on the other hand has tremendous interest in Ukraine and specifically Crimea. The U.S. will be fine regardless of whether or not Russia "owns" the Crimean peninsula. Russia will not be so fine if the the EU and U.S. dominate the economic, political, and social landscape of Ukraine. How do I say this, look at U.S. trade with Ukraine--last year it was less than the budget of the city of Philadelphia. On the other hand, Ukraine's connections economically to Russia are much more significant.
Ukraine's importance to the security of the U.S. is not great, to our European allies it is more important--so if they are concerned enough to do something, great. Ukraine's importance to the security of Russia is significant, particularly if you look at the world from the Russian viewpoint. From the Russian view, the western world is trying to dominate the continent of Europe to the security detriment of Russia. Putin's actions seen through the lens of security concern make sense and help us to understand the world. And, hey do not try to tell me we are neutral on the issue of Ukraine when the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs is in Kiev on the street passing out coffee and pastries to anti-government protestors last month.
I am rambling a bit here, but the point is that power politics and security concern is alive and well. Perhaps the world is still well and duly understood by concentration on balance of power/balance of security politics. Countries with similar institutions and histories may still be willing to engage in armed conflict with those similar to themselves when security and power matter. Maybe we can finally kiss Democratic Peace Theory goodnight--a good thing for my own two cents.
One of the push backs against structural theories and realist theories of international relations is that these theories only explain one outcome--war. Another push back is that these theories are outdated as proven by their failure to explain the end of the Cold War happening without a very "hot" war. Speaking in generalizations, we have seen the growth of theoretic frameworks championing cooperative understandings of norms and procedures. We have seen the growth of popularity of democratic engagement/enlargement. We have seen an increase in arguments eschewing the understanding of balance of power in favor of understanding interdependence.
Now, I am no fan of the abuse of power or aggressive unilateral foreign policy that serves no particular interests. So, to be frank, I do not believe the U.S. has any great interest in Ukraine and if the Russians want Crimea I see no reason for the U.S. to openly aggravate the situation by failing to distinguish between power and interest. Yes, we have the power to engage any government anywhere over any issue. But we do not have any interest in Ukraine beyond our interest in acting against Putin and Russia. Russia on the other hand has tremendous interest in Ukraine and specifically Crimea. The U.S. will be fine regardless of whether or not Russia "owns" the Crimean peninsula. Russia will not be so fine if the the EU and U.S. dominate the economic, political, and social landscape of Ukraine. How do I say this, look at U.S. trade with Ukraine--last year it was less than the budget of the city of Philadelphia. On the other hand, Ukraine's connections economically to Russia are much more significant.
Ukraine's importance to the security of the U.S. is not great, to our European allies it is more important--so if they are concerned enough to do something, great. Ukraine's importance to the security of Russia is significant, particularly if you look at the world from the Russian viewpoint. From the Russian view, the western world is trying to dominate the continent of Europe to the security detriment of Russia. Putin's actions seen through the lens of security concern make sense and help us to understand the world. And, hey do not try to tell me we are neutral on the issue of Ukraine when the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs is in Kiev on the street passing out coffee and pastries to anti-government protestors last month.
I am rambling a bit here, but the point is that power politics and security concern is alive and well. Perhaps the world is still well and duly understood by concentration on balance of power/balance of security politics. Countries with similar institutions and histories may still be willing to engage in armed conflict with those similar to themselves when security and power matter. Maybe we can finally kiss Democratic Peace Theory goodnight--a good thing for my own two cents.
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