Litvinenko and Kaczynski

Quick what do a former KGB/FSB agent turned exile assassinated in London and the Unabomber have in common?  Not much at all, except they are filling up my time in the last 10 days.  I was happily reading away in the 329 page document that is the judge's report on the Litvinenko assassination inquiry and wham...a series of articles released based on the prison correspondence of Ted Kaczynski.  I am always fascinated with the mind of geniuses--which is Kaczynski.  I am always fascinated by trying to understand lone-wolf perpetrators of terrorist actions--which is also Kacynski.  And I am equally fascinated by conspiracy theories and potential exposure of government agents perpetrating criminal actions--which is the Litvinenko inquiry document.

For my two cents, no way to absolve the Unabomber of the guilt of his actions.  But I find it fascinating how he talks about love for his fellow man being not out of character with great hatred toward some of mankind.  The letters written by Kaczynski and publicly released as part of these articles released recently are some of the more interesting reading I have done in months.  Go check it out here.

Something to Look Forward To Tomorrow

Tomorrow a British judge will release the report of his findings regarding the radioactive poisoning death of Alexander Litvinenko, according to a report on the AP news service.  For my two cents, it should be interesting reading and highly speculative as none of the accused Russians have testified.  So, I look forward to reading the report and will remain skeptical of any conclusions that are reached.

Coercion--The Acceptable Use of Power

Nearly as soon as sanctions against Iran stemming from the nuclear program issues lapsed, the U.S. government announced new sanctions against Iran for ballistic missile testing.  Of course the Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif decried the coercive effort of the U.S. government.  Of course Zarif is right, it was a coercive act.  Welcome to big boy power politics Zarif.  

The use of power is best for any state when coercion is used.  Even better for any state is when they can get an ally or two to engage in coercive action against the targeted state (spreading the cost is a good thing).  For my two cents, we gave up too easy on the nuclear deal and will probably give up too easy on sanctions against Iran over their ballistic missile test program.  By the way, I agree with Zarif, Iran has a right to defend itself, Iran has the same sovereignty as every other recognized state.  But guess what, the U.S. also has a right to say we do not condone your testing and will try to stop you from testing.  The only question is whether or not enough real interest exists for the U.S. to exercise power in this particular situation.  Does an Iranian intermediate range missile system represent a threat to U.S. interests?  If the answer is yes, then we have cause to exercise power. 

Farewell Glen Frey

In honor of Glen Frey's passing:

Hostage/Prisoner Swaps

I am a realist.  Political behaviors are about power and security.  States (governments of the world) seek power because power provides security.  States seek power because power provides credibility and prestige.  When power has been maximized within the bounds of the current hierarchy of states, states will seek to maximize security based on held or perceived power.  Such maximization will lead to alliances and other balancing behaviors.  Also states seeking to maximize power and security will generally do so while seeking to limit the fiscal and political costs to themselves.

For my two cents, and given my view of realism, prisoner/hostage swaps for the holder of primacy in the hierarchy of power is a bad idea.  The Obama administration touts swapping 7 Iranian prisoners and forgoing potential prosecution of 14 other Iranians wanted for violating international sanctions for the return of 4 U.S. nationals held hostage and 1 U.S. national held prisoner as a winning gambit--and I for one say the Obama administration is wrong.  First we swapped prisoners, caught breaking the law, tried, found guilty, given sentences for 4 U.S. nationals who were held captive with no trials or sentencing made public and one U.S. national who had been tried and sentencing made public.  Second, by giving up much more 21 for 5, the U.S. does appear weak.  Third, such swaps encourage other states to seek U.S. hostages because they believe the U.S. administration will relent.  Finally, what else should we expect from an administration that gives up terrorists for a deserter and calls it a win.