Today it is fairly easy to think about and read about events in Asia. The president is in the Asia-Pacific and the news and entertainment folks follows where he goes. I call them entertainment because I have a hard time considering Fox News, CNN, HNN, MSNBC, etc. to be news media these days.
This morning I took to ForeignPolicy.com to peruse blogs and reports regarding issues in Asia. I found three things that I believe need to be briefly commented on in my own blog. One, Michael Pillsbury makes a well built argument that China and the U.S. are preparing for war. I wrote my master's thesis on Chinese foreign policy in 1998 and used pieces of that work for conference presentations and to inform a book chapter on Chinese-Philippines relations that I co-authored in 1999. At that time I was convinced and remain somewhat convinced that China's intent was to have the capability to engage in military actions with any military force in the world (including the U.S. military) by the year 2015. Chinese purchases of submarines, upgrades to their surface fleet, purchases and development of military aircraft, testing of ASAT capabilities, purchase of an aircraft carrier and development of naval air operations, development of apparent stealth technology aircraft, all point to a military attempting to rival the best in the world.
Two, North Korea has developed cheap, low technology, but efficient UAV capability. I am not sure if efficient is really a good word here since a few of these UAVs have crashed in South Korea. But, those crashes are how we know North Korea has developed this capability. So we do not know if any of these border crossing UAV missions have been successful. But we do know the capability exists and this knowledge is important and something to cause some degree of apprehension.
Three, David Francis and others are correct about the Obama-Xi handshake deal on climate change will be difficult for either side to really achieve. Do we really believe that Obama by use of the EPA can really force inducstry, particularly the energy generating industry, to reduce greenhouse emissions by 26-28 percent by 2025? And honestly, do you really think that this non-binding on U.S. citizens agreement (it is not a U.S. Senate ratified treaty), will be followed through by the next administration. Great job of grandstanding Obama, ressurect that world image that won you the Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing.nothing. And what kind of deal is it that says, ok we'll cut our emissions by 26-28% by 2025 and you promise to do something by 2030. For my two cents, not a very strong move at all.
This morning I took to ForeignPolicy.com to peruse blogs and reports regarding issues in Asia. I found three things that I believe need to be briefly commented on in my own blog. One, Michael Pillsbury makes a well built argument that China and the U.S. are preparing for war. I wrote my master's thesis on Chinese foreign policy in 1998 and used pieces of that work for conference presentations and to inform a book chapter on Chinese-Philippines relations that I co-authored in 1999. At that time I was convinced and remain somewhat convinced that China's intent was to have the capability to engage in military actions with any military force in the world (including the U.S. military) by the year 2015. Chinese purchases of submarines, upgrades to their surface fleet, purchases and development of military aircraft, testing of ASAT capabilities, purchase of an aircraft carrier and development of naval air operations, development of apparent stealth technology aircraft, all point to a military attempting to rival the best in the world.
Two, North Korea has developed cheap, low technology, but efficient UAV capability. I am not sure if efficient is really a good word here since a few of these UAVs have crashed in South Korea. But, those crashes are how we know North Korea has developed this capability. So we do not know if any of these border crossing UAV missions have been successful. But we do know the capability exists and this knowledge is important and something to cause some degree of apprehension.
Three, David Francis and others are correct about the Obama-Xi handshake deal on climate change will be difficult for either side to really achieve. Do we really believe that Obama by use of the EPA can really force inducstry, particularly the energy generating industry, to reduce greenhouse emissions by 26-28 percent by 2025? And honestly, do you really think that this non-binding on U.S. citizens agreement (it is not a U.S. Senate ratified treaty), will be followed through by the next administration. Great job of grandstanding Obama, ressurect that world image that won you the Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing.nothing. And what kind of deal is it that says, ok we'll cut our emissions by 26-28% by 2025 and you promise to do something by 2030. For my two cents, not a very strong move at all.
How much trouble can China make before they jeopardise their export based economy?
ReplyDeleteI believe the answer will depend upon the willingness of states to contest Chinese capabilities as I do not see a let down in demand for Chinese manufactured goods.
ReplyDelete