In case you missed the news, which I almost did, while focusing on Ukraine, Israel/Gaza, and a multitude of other conflicts around the world, The Armenians and Azerbaijanis are fighting again in the South Caucuses. The death toll is less than 20 as of the latest report I have read. Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the control of Armenia and local Armenian militia since the end of heavy fighting for control of the region in 1994.
(map courtesy of wikipedia.org)
Typical of many ethnically fueled conflicts, both sides blame the other for initiation of hostilities. Interestingly though, neither government seems to want to escalate hostilities. Also, neither government seems to be really willing to meet and discuss the issue of control or to be beholden to Russia to broker peace. The government of Azerbaijan, led by Ilham Aliyev, has stated in recent months that they are capable of militarily taking Nagorno-Karabakh by force and Aliyev is currently ignoring Russian requests to meet with Putin in Sochi to discuss the issue.
So, why the hostility now? For my two cents, the hostility is most likely the product of local commanders making poor, snap judgement decisions and not a direct result of a desire to change the current status quo by force on the part of either government. Given the statements of the Aliyev government keeping our eyes open on this trouble spot is wise, and I hope I am right that this latest incident will not be a spark to renewed larger scale hostilities.
(map courtesy of wikipedia.org)
Typical of many ethnically fueled conflicts, both sides blame the other for initiation of hostilities. Interestingly though, neither government seems to want to escalate hostilities. Also, neither government seems to be really willing to meet and discuss the issue of control or to be beholden to Russia to broker peace. The government of Azerbaijan, led by Ilham Aliyev, has stated in recent months that they are capable of militarily taking Nagorno-Karabakh by force and Aliyev is currently ignoring Russian requests to meet with Putin in Sochi to discuss the issue.
So, why the hostility now? For my two cents, the hostility is most likely the product of local commanders making poor, snap judgement decisions and not a direct result of a desire to change the current status quo by force on the part of either government. Given the statements of the Aliyev government keeping our eyes open on this trouble spot is wise, and I hope I am right that this latest incident will not be a spark to renewed larger scale hostilities.
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